Tag: 2008 (page 15)

Bump and Update: Here is the 11 page memo (pdf)that accompanied Hillary's letter today that went out to more than 800 superdelegates and party officials. Some good points:

On February 8th, Senator Obama said that if someone had the most pledged delegates and the most votes in the country, that “it would be problematic for political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters.” It appears that when all the votes are counted on June 3rd, Hillary Clinton will be the candidate with the most votes. The automatic delegates then face the choice between one candidate with more pledged delegates and another candidate with more popular vote

Barack Obama escaped hot water over his mistaking Auschwitz for Buchenwald. Fair enough. But I have a new theory now -- one that's more a curious observation than a criticism, or perhaps a little of both.

He makes a lot of mistakes about his family history. It's like he's retelling stories he's heard from third parties, including campaign staff who looked the stuff up. Maybe, aside from his grandparents with whom he lived for several years, he didn't know their side of the family that well -- including the great uncle who was one of the first at Buchenwald. In other words, he's telling stories he's learned on the campaign trail rather than ones he grew up hearing.

It probably wasn't his father who mistakenly told him the Kennedy family paid for his travel to the U.S. to study in Hawaii. It probably wasn't his mother who told him the 1965 March in Selma, AL allowed her to marry his father (he was born in 1961). More likely, I think, campaign researchers and aides came up with it.

Just like the Boston Globe reported the campaign came up with the story about his Indiana "homestead." I doubt he even knew there was a family homestead before going to Indiana to campaign: [More...]

What has 2008 shown us in terms of the fairness of the Democratic nomination process? That the caucus system is neither fair nor representative.

Here's an interesting report on the differences between primaries and caucuses and the impact in the 2008 Presidential nomination. I am reprinting it with the permission of its author, P. Cronin. It addresses:

• Voter Suppression in Caucuses
• Disenfranchised Voter Groups & Statistics
• Differential in Voter Turnout Rates
• Popular Vote Disparity
• Estimated Voter Suppression in 2008 Caucuses
• Caucus Systems Distort Election Results
• Vote-spread Differences
• Disproportionate Votes-to-Delegates Ratio
• More Math of Electability
• Other Primary versus Caucus Considerations
• 2008 Democratic Election Snapshot
• What IF: Florida & Michigan

Some highlights are below, but I recommend reading the entire report. [More....]

The San Francisco Chronicle reports on the electoral map challenges for Obama in November:

The same day that Obama enthralled the young, educated voters of Oregon, he was thrashed in Kentucky, losing many counties by 85 and 90 percent margins.

"I was shaking my head when I looked at the Kentucky results," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Single-digit numbers are something a fringe candidate gets. You put a Joe Smith, a placebo, on the ballot and they get 7 percent. ... The voters in Kentucky in our poll said they thought Barack Obama would be the next president, yet only 7 percent in some of these counties were voting for him."

And these were Democrats. Parts of pivotal Ohio and Pennsylvania mirror or include Appalachia.

Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico don't make up the difference:

Obama then would have to recoup those 41 electoral votes someplace else. Taking Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado would yield just 19, leaving him short even of Kerry's losing total.

Add Ohio and PA to Florida and one has to wonder what the superdelegates are thinking.

Comments now closed.

John McCain shows that he can twist the facts with the best of them:

"[Obama] really has no experience or knowledge or judgment about the issue of Iraq and he has wanted to surrender for a long time."

Granted, Obama hasn't done anything to distinguish himself on getting us out of Iraq (aside from his speech in 2002 before we went in) and his experience and knowledge are fair game, but to say he advocated surrender? That's just false.

I might add, of the three remaining candidates, McCain is by far the worst on Iraq.

The candidates are definitely tired. Here's Barack Obama in New Mexico on Memorial Day, opening his speech with:

On this Memorial Day, as our nation honors its unbroken line of fallen heroes -- and I see many of them in the audience here today -- our sense of patriotism is particularly strong.

Via Instapundit. On Obama's website, the line is missing from the text of his speech.

Was it video-shopped or did he say it? [Added: The video on his website includes the line, so it's real. Must have been an ad-lib]

Obama also played for the women vote in New Mexico today, singling out women veterans as particularly susceptible to post-tramautic stress disorder: [More...]

Jane Hamsher at Firedoglake today asks whether John McCain will make a pitch for Hillary's female supporters if Obama is the nominee.

I spoke with a well-known pollster recently who said that if women think the country would be safer with McCain over Obama by 10 points on election day, she predicts that McCain will win. While it's absurd to think that McCain would be better than Obama on women's issues, these kinds of decisions are -- as Krugman says -- highly emotional. A pitch to "security moms," combined with an appeal about "elitists in the Democratic party" looking down their noses on working class women just might work.

I hope McCain fails in his bid for women voters, should Obama be the nominee. It's the last thing Hillary would want. And, Democrats who switch sides out of spite or revenge will get far more than they bargained for, including anti-choice Supreme Court Justices and right-wing ideologue federal judges.

Any Democrat is better than what John McCain is offering. Given McCain's age, his selection of a VP candidate will be very telling. I suspect it will be someone that can bring him evangelical and ultra-conservative votes. That makes his candidacy twice as dangerous.

Yet, Jane's post is correct that Obama's nomination poses big electability challenges for Democrats in November.

The answer, to me, is simple: The nomination is still a two way race. Superdelegates can still pick the more electable Democrat among not only women voters but older, rural and blue collar voters as well. That candidate is Hillary Clinton. [More...]

Real Clear Politics calculates the popular vote six ways. I've reprinted all six below.

Not surprisingly, my view is that only the first two are valid because whatever happens with delegates, the Florida and Michigan elections were certified by the states and people pulled a lever or touched a screen or dropped off or sent in a ballot choosing a candidate and those votes must be counted.

The DNC and both candidates agree at least some FL and MI delegates will be seated at the convention. The delegate selection is based in large part on who their voters selected in their state's certified primaries -- the popular vote for the counties/districts in the two states. How can their votes not be counted in the popular vote total?

However you calculate the popular vote total today, here's the ultimate question: Between 1 and 2 million people may vote in Puerto Rico's open primary on June 1 (2 million voted in 2004.) If Hillary wins convincingly, not W. VA or KY numbers but convincingly, won't she clearly be ahead in the popular vote by any rational standard?

More...

Hillary Clinton has an op-ed today in the NY Daily News. She is staying in the race because she believes she is the best candidate and can win in November against John McCain.

I am running because I still believe I can win on the merits. Because, with our economy in crisis, our nation at war, the stakes have never been higher - and the need for real leadership has never been greater - and I believe I can provide that leadership.

I am not unaware of the challenges or the odds of my securing the nomination - but this race remains extraordinarily close, and hundreds of thousands of people in upcoming primaries are still waiting to vote. As I have said so many times over the course of this primary, if Sen. Obama wins the nomination, I will support him and work my heart out for him against John McCain. But that has not happened yet.

I am running because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party. I believe that if Sen. Obama and I both make our case - and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard - in the end, everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee.

A Quinnipiac Poll shows Hillary leading and Obama trailing McCain in two of the three critical swing states, and Hillary leading Obama as to McCain in all three:

May 22, 2008 - McCain Leads Obama In Two Of Three Key Swing States, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania --- FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 45 - Obama 41; OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 41; McCain 44 - Obama 40: PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 50 - McCain 37; Obama 46 - McCain 40

..."The numbers for Florida and Ohio are good news for Sen. John McCain and should be worrisome for Sen. Barack Obama. That is especially true about Ohio, which decided the 2004 election. Ohio's economy is worse than the rest of the country and the Republican brand there is in disrepute. McCain's Buckeye lead may be a sign that nationally this may not be the easy Democratic walk to the White House that many expected," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In the popular vote, Jonathan Last of the Philadelphia Inquirer Editorial Board comes up with much the same numbers that I did a few days ago, using Real Clear Politics and the most expansive number of voters available, one that includes Florida, Michigan and the caucus states. [More...]

Barack Obama has hired John Kerry's vice-presidential vetter. Here's my questions:

• Does Hillary want the vice-presidential spot on the ticket? Does she just want him to offer it to her so she can have the satisfaction of turning him down? Or, does she figure since she's promised to campaign for him if he's the nominee that she might as well still be campaigning for herself as well, even if it's just as the VP candidate?

• Can Obama win without Hillary on the ticket?

• Is serving as VP in Hillary's best interest -- or just Obama's?

• Last, if Obama, who we know doesn't want Hillary on the ticket, offers it to her due to pressure from Democratic party leaders, what does that say about his message of bringing change to Washington? [More...]

Hillary Clinton raised $21 million in April, her second best month ever. Barack Obama raised $31 million. And for the first time, Obama spent more money than he raised. He spent $36 million in April.

For a candidate the media has written off, that's an incredible achievement.

The amount includes the $10 million she raised in one night, but not the $5 million she loaned the campaign. In other words, it's all contributions. The full report is here.

Hillary also picked up two superdelegates yesterday, one in Ohio and one in Massachussetts.