A new ethics complaint has been filed with the Alaska State Personnel Board against Gov. Sarah Palin over her charging the state for non-government related travel expenses of her children. The complaint is here (pdf).

When Palin returns to Alaska next week, hopefully for good, she may face different approval ratings than when she began her most non-excellent VP adventure.

I personally have had good exchanges with conservative legal commenter Ed Whelan of the National Review so I was a bit surprised at his dustup with Glenn Greenwald. But this is a funny quote from Whelan about Greenwald - "I’m not familiar with this guy. Is he always so unhinged?" - when you consider what he writes today at NRO:

[T]he survival of the historic American experiment in representative government will be in serious jeopardy if Barack Obama is our next president….

Um, a bit unhinged wouldn't you say?

By Big TentDemocrat, speaking for me only

Matt Yglesias writes:

Every time I read Ezra Klein pooh-pooing Barack Obama’s domestic agenda, I feel a bit baffled. . . . Is it as left-wing as what John Edwards ran on in the primaries in 2008? No. But it’s much more robustly progressive than what John Kerry offered in 2004, what Al Gore offered in 2000, or what Bill Clinton offered in 1996, and somewhat more ambitious than the Clinton ‘92 program. Presumably, that entire agenda won’t actually be enacted. . . [O]ne key element in the struggle to prevent [the Obama agenda] from happening, will be the effort to argue, if Obama wins, that, eh, he didn’t really run on a bold progressive agenda. Under the circumstances, I think it’s important to argue that, yes, he in fact did run on strong progressive agenda . .

It also happens to be true that Obama ran a progressive general election campaign. It is one of the ironies of this election season that Obama flipped the usual formula - run to the Left in the primaries and run to the Center in the GE. Obama has done the opposite. He ran to the Center (really he ran to nothing - he ran to the Post Partisan Unity Schtick) during the primaries and to the Left during the general election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

It appears that the McCain campaign's argument this week for why it still has a chance is that turnout will be like 2004. There would have been a time where I might have bought into this type of thinking as a possibility. But after watching the record turnout in state afte state during the Democratic primaries, knowing that McCain is hardly someone who enthuses the conservative base and understanding the conditions in the country, I just do not see it. Andrew Kohut, whose Pew poll is spitting out some outrageous numbers, is however, correct when he says:

[T]he poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, "we've consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that."

In any event, the WaPo pollsters, who show Obama with a 7 point lead, are not even using an expanded turnout projection:

Republicans are coming home to the GOP candidate. As a result the spread between Obama and McCain is smaller. The differences in the polls seems easy to explain - some pollsters are sticking to a tight likely voter screen - others are not. Among those hewing to a tight screen are Ras, which now shows a 3 point Obama lead, 50-47, Battleground, which also shows a 3 point Obama lead, and IBD/TIPP, which shows Obama with a 4 point lead, 48-44.

The pollsters with an expanded voter screen show Obama with a more comfortable lead. Among these are Hotline, which has Obama by 7, 49-42, DKos/R200, which has Obama by 6, 50-44, and ABC/WaPo, which has Obama by 7, 52-45. The tight vs expanded effect is well illustrated by Gallup, which has a foot in each camp. Its traditional LV screen garners a 2 point Obama lead, 49-47 while its expanded LV screen shows Obama by 7, 51-44.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Is anyone else experiencing Sudden Election Fatigue Syndrome?

My cases have become much more interesting this week and I'm barely watching the national news. I haven't even been online that much.

I think this will be the shortest election night in history. We'll probably know the winner when the polls close on the East Coast, unless there's a news blackout on returns and exit polls until voting ends on the West Coast.

It might be different if the race were closer, if McCain/Palin hadn't become a national embarrassment. Republicans can either pull their blankets over their head and hope it's a bad dream or fight among themselves about who made the worst choices -- their candidate, his VP choice or his own campaign staff.

Obama ran a masterful campaign and went the distance. I'll be looking forward to January when I can begin tracking the change he brings, but for right now, I'm election'ed out. Am I the only one?

A new Arizona poll finds John McCain's lead over Obama reduced to 2 points -- a statistical tie.

The same poll last month had McCain up by 7.

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Obama ahead in both Ohio and Florida.

The Washington Post reports McCain will focus on the economy in the coming week rather than national secuirty.

Does anyone care anymore what he focuses on?

Cutting off a deer's antlers to make a political point? There are some very sick people in America.

Police in Colorado Springs are looking for the person who threw the head of a deer into the parking lot of a Barack Obama campaign office. The head was found late Saturday night. The Humane Society says the buck's antlers had been cut off to make the head resemble a donkey, the symbol of the Democratic Party.

Police will step up their patrols of campaign offices in Colorado Springs through election day.

Michelle Obama is in Colorado Springs to speak at an early voting rally at 6pm MT. Our local news will probably live-stream it. Try 7News (ABC), 9News (NBC) or 4 News (CBS.) Update: Try here at this Colorado Springs station.

PPP's NC poll has Obama leading by 1, 49-48. Obama could win this one in a squeaker. PPP's demographic results are fairly conservative. McCain leads among whites 60-36 (with whites comprising 76% of the vote) and Obama leading among African Americans 92-6 (comprising 21% of the vote). Obama leads among "Other" (comprising 3% of the vote), 67-25. There is some controversy about the size of the A-A turnout and the accuracy of exit polling in 2004. Since North Carolina is a state subject to the Voting Rights Act, it provides actual numbers by race. That said, African American turnout in the primary easily exceeded pollster's expectations of 20% of the total vote. In fact it was 33% of the vote in the Dem NC primary.

Obama can, indeed maybe, should, win in North Carolina.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Pew provides a ridiculous result:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Pew is a real and respectable pollster. But this result is not to be believed. Zogby must be pissed - Pew is gonna grab the publicity. Zogby may go all in and predict a McCain win. h/t to Atrios for the phrase "poll pron."

*Misspell intentional for the filters.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The SUSA Ohio poll, which has Obama up 4, 49-45, gives us another chance to do a demographic analysis.

SUSA has Obama winning African Americans (projected to be 11% of the electorate, up 1% from 2004) by 84-12. As usual, SUSA seems to understate Obama's A-A support. At worst, Obama will win 90% of the A-A vote. (Yes, I know Bush is said to have won 16% of the A-A vote in 2004, that is meaningless imo.) More . . .

A week to go. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 50-43. The last two days of tracking has Obama at +5 and +6. Expect a 6 point race in that poll tomorrow. Ras has it a steady 5 point lead for Obama, 51-46. Hotline still has Obama +8, 50-42. ABC/WaPo has Obama + 7, 52-45. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 10, 52-42.

Only 2 polls (I do not consider Zogby a pollster) have Obama below 50 - Battleground (the problem with Battleground is it has data from a 6 day period), which has Obama winning 49-46, and IBD/TIPP, which has Obama winning 47-44, signalling a high undecided, not likely a week out.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only