It's a big pardon day for Donald Trump. He commuted the 14 year sentence of former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich who has served 8 years, and pardoned former junk bond king Michael Milken (who served 22 months and was released in 1993) and former NYC police chief Bernie Kerik (convicted of tax fraud for which he served 3 years of his four year sentence).

I wrote about the Blagojevich trial extensively and have always believed his 14 year sentence was unduly severe.

In 2010, Bernie Kerik reported to prison to serve a 48 month sentence for 48 month sentence for crimes related to under-reporting the value of renovations on a personal residence and making false statements on his Homeland Security application. (He had been nominated for Chief of HHS by his former buddy Rudy Giuliani).

Trump also pardoned a former NFL guy I never heard of who backed one of his fundraisers and former junk bond king Michael Milken (famously perp-walked while Rudy was Mayor).

Here's a new open thread, all topics welcome.

The New Hampshire results are in. Bernie won by a sliver. Pete B. came in second and Amy K. third. Then Elizabeth Warren, then Biden.

Sen. Michael Bennet and entrepreneur Andrew Yang have dropped out. Warren is staying in. Joe Biden is lagging and sagging, but trying to hold on, believing people of color in South Carolina will resurrect his campaign. [More...]

New Hampshire began voting at midnight. Joe Biden has already left for South Carolina. Sanders is expected to win. How will Amy and Pete do? Or Elizabeth Warren? Is Andrew Yang finished? It looks like all the media wants to write about is Bloomberg.

Update: Three of the prosecutors on Roger Stone's case have just filed notices to withdraw their appearances for the Government. (Aaron Zelinsky, Jonathan Kravis and Adam Jed ). John Crabb, Jr. has entered his appearance for the Government and filed a supplemental sentencing memo asking for a lighter sentence for Stone even in view of the "arguably" correct guideline range of 87 - 108 months. Crabb is the Acting Chief of the Criminal Division and is licensed in New York. In the new brief, Crabb writes:

As noted above, a sentence of 87 to 108 months more typically has been imposed for defendants who have higher criminal history categories or who obstructed justice as part of a violent criminal organization.

Tell that to Rod Blagojevich who got 14 years. Tell that to non-violent drug traffickers who by law must get a ten year mandatory minimum sentence if their offense and uncharged relevant conduct exceeded 5 kilos of cocaine or 1,000 pounds of marijuana. Which is a more serious offense? I'd say lying to interfere with an investigation into foreign interference in a presidential election.

[Original Post below:]

Looks like Donald Trump didn't have his best week after all, notwithstanding his acquittal.

The new Quinnipiac poll shows Bernie on top of the other Dems and all Dems would beat Trump in November

Quinnipiac poll Feb 5-9:

• Bloomberg beats Trump 51-42
• Sanders beats Trump 51-43
• Biden beats Trump 50-43
• Klobuchar beats Trump 49-43
• Warren beats Trump 48-44
• Buttigieg beats Trump 47-43

Where they stand:

• Sanders 25% (+4)
• Biden 17% (-9)
• Bloomberg 15% (+7)
• Warren 14% (-1)
• Buttigieg 10% (+4)
• Klobuchar 4% (-3)

[More...]

Update: Parasite is the night's big winner, four awards, including best picture, best director, best international feature and one other. I'm looking foward to watching it.

Random quiz: Which male actor has been nominated the most in the Academy's 92 year history? Jack Nicholson with 12 nominations (Laurence Olivier only had ten). He's tied with Katherine Hepburn. And the most nominated actor/acress of all time? Meryl Streep with 21 nominations. [More...]

Who moves you the most? Who do you think stands the best chance against Trump?

Can Elizabeth Warren make a comeback? Will Biden be toast after the New Hampshire primary?

Or are we doomed to another 4 years of the most horrible administration in our lifetimes?

Angry New Hampshire journalist who questions Pete embarrasses herself: She doesn't know the difference between decriminalization and legalization. Pete patiently explains -- partially. Before blaming the drug companies. How about blaming the laws restricting pain pills which lead people to heroin? Andrew Yang has a much better response.

Why are they giving Biden so much time? Why is he so angry, defensive and strident? Say No to Joe and the Politics of Yesterday. [More....]

During Donald Trump's SOTU I mentioned a few things I thought would backfire big time. First, his spotlight on his guest, Juan Guaidó, who is an opposition leader in Venezuela.

Trump called Guaidó the “true and legitimate” leader of Venezuela and said President Nicolas Maduro is a “tyrant” as lawmakers applauded.

“Mr. President, please take this message back to your homeland,” Trump said to Guaidó. “All Americans are united with the Venezuelan people in their righteous struggle for freedom.”

Here's the result of Trump's welcome of Guaidó:

Six American oil executives under house arrest in Venezuela were rounded up by police hours after President Donald Trump met Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s chief opponent at the White House, according to family members of the men.

[More...]

Donald Trump sounds just like Alec Baldwin.

Is anyone listening to this bubbe meise?

If he touts Kushner's peace plan, I bet he neglects the direct threats ISIS made in response via an audio message released this week. ISIS is promising a world boom, not just a blue-collar boom.

Update: Trump claims great credit for the First Step Act -- a bill that excludes relief for deportable immigrants. What kind of reform is that? It's really not a progressive bill at all . (Trump's son in law Jared Kushner knows only slightly more about federal criminal justice than he does about Middle East peace solutions. [More...]

Approximately 2/3 (62%) of the Iowa Results were just released:

Poular vote

• Sanders first place 28,200, 190 more than
• Pete B. with 27, 030
• Elizabeth, Biden, Klobuchar, Yang next

Percentage of state delegates among these 62% (41 total):

• Pete, 26.9
• Sanders, 25.1
• Warren 18.3
• Biden, 15.6
• Klobuchar 12.6

It looks to me that Biden lost 2,000 popular votes from the first to second round because he didn't hit the 15% threshold, and those 2,000 votes went to the other candidates. Andrew Yang got 5,750 votes in the first round and 4,636 of those votes went to the other candidates.

Summary: Biden is the biggest loser in these first results. [More...]

All eyes are on Iowa for tonight's caucus results. But problems with reporting have delayed the results .

Iowa is complicated. I remember from 2008 that the caucus I attended was like musical chairs. First everyone goes to their part of the auditorium where someone is holding their candidate's sign. After a preliminary vote, the candidates who didn't get 15% were eliminated. Then the hard bargaining begins with the candidates who made the cut vying for the votes of the losers' supporters. Then they voted again. Edwards and Hillary ended up being 7 votes apart, state-wide. Nobody got any actual delegates -- what they got were delegates to the state convention which in June, 2008 picked national delegates.

This year the rules changed so things are even murkier. As the New York Times reports: [More...]